Market ticker by TradingView
Survey · Investor sentiment

AKKUR Investor Sentiment Survey

A monthly survey of AKKUR's subscribers on the Icelandic equity market, the policy rate and inflation, with a few questions that change with the month. Latest: August 2026, 23 to 25 August 2026. The figures are respondents' views, aggregated; no individual response is published.

Latest
August 2026
5 months since April 2026
OMXI15 bull-bear spread, 6 months
+53,8 pp
+47,3 pp in July 2026
Net expecting rate cuts, 12 months
+84,6 pp
+30,9 pp in July 2026
Net expecting lower inflation, 12 months
+86,5 pp
+60,0 pp in July 2026

Month by month

Each spread is the share expecting the favourable outcome less the share expecting the other, in percentage points, among those who answered the question.

OMXI15 bull-bear spread, pp

050100AprMayJunJulAug6M +53,812M +86,5

Net expecting policy rate cuts, pp

-8010100AprMayJunJulAug6M +23,112M +84,6

Net expecting lower inflation, pp

050100AprMayJunJulAug6M +28,812M +86,5

Results

April 2026

OMXI15

Next 6 months

Where do you expect the OMXI15 to be in 6 months?

Up 10%+5,7%
Up 1–10%45,3%
Flat (±1%)37,7%
Down 1–10%10,4%
Down 10%+0,9%
Bull-bear spread +39,6 pp

Next 12 months

Where do you expect the OMXI15 to be in 12 months?

Up 10%+27,4%
Up 1–10%54,7%
Flat (±1%)7,5%
Down 1–10%10,4%
Down 10%+0,0%
Bull-bear spread +71,7 pp

Policy rate

Next 6 months

Where do you expect the CBI policy rate to be in 6 months?

Higher67,0%
Unchanged31,1%
Lower1,9%
Net expecting cuts -65,1 pp

Next 12 months

Where do you expect the CBI policy rate to be in 12 months?

Higher45,3%
Unchanged17,0%
Lower37,7%
Net expecting cuts -7,5 pp

Inflation

Next 6 months

In 6 months, 12-month CPI inflation will be

Higher24,8%
Unchanged37,1%
Lower38,1%
Net expecting lower inflation +13,3 pp

Next 12 months

In 12 months, 12-month CPI inflation will be

Higher8,5%
Unchanged18,9%
Lower72,6%
Net expecting lower inflation +64,2 pp

Also asked in April 2026

What is the biggest risk to Icelandic equities?

Inflation and interest rates50,9%
Global recession or downturn26,4%
Domestic political risk (incl. tax)12,3%
ISK real exchange rate strength5,7%
Other4,7%

What is your estimate of the equity market risk premium for Iceland?

3,0%3,2%
3,5%9,5%
4,0%14,7%
4,5%7,4%
5,0%33,7%
5,5%9,5%
6,0%10,5%
6,5%5,3%
7,0%4,2%
7,5%2,1%
Mean 4,98% · median 5,0%

Is the Icelandic equity market, in aggregate, fairly valued today?

Significantly undervalued (20%+)21,0%
Undervalued (5–20%)61,9%
Fairly valued (±5%)14,3%
Overvalued (5–20%)2,9%
Significantly overvalued (20%+)0,0%
Net undervalued +80,0 pp
May 2026

OMXI15

Next 6 months

Where do you expect the OMXI15 to be in 6 months?

Up 10%+12,8%
Up 1–10%42,4%
Flat (±1%)32,8%
Down 1–10%11,2%
Down 10%+0,8%
Bull-bear spread +43,2 pp

Next 12 months

Where do you expect the OMXI15 to be in 12 months?

Up 10%+34,4%
Up 1–10%42,4%
Flat (±1%)14,4%
Down 1–10%8,0%
Down 10%+0,8%
Bull-bear spread +68,0 pp

Policy rate

Next 6 months

Where do you expect the CBI policy rate to be in 6 months?

Higher41,6%
Unchanged47,2%
Lower11,2%
Net expecting cuts -30,4 pp

Next 12 months

Where do you expect the CBI policy rate to be in 12 months?

Higher20,0%
Unchanged17,6%
Lower62,4%
Net expecting cuts +42,4 pp

Inflation

Next 6 months

In 6 months, 12-month CPI inflation will be

Higher25,6%
Unchanged26,4%
Lower48,0%
Net expecting lower inflation +22,4 pp

Next 12 months

In 12 months, 12-month CPI inflation will be

Higher7,2%
Unchanged14,4%
Lower78,4%
Net expecting lower inflation +71,2 pp

Also asked in May 2026

In 12 months, the house price index will be

Higher28,8%
Unchanged35,2%
Lower36,0%

Would Iceland joining the EU be positive or negative for the Icelandic equity market?

Very positive15,2%
Positive28,0%
Neutral19,2%
Negative23,2%
Very negative14,4%
Net positive +5,6 pp

Do you prefer dividends or share buybacks?

Prefer dividends21,6%
Prefer share buybacks10,4%
Prefer a roughly equal split31,2%
Depends on the share price: buybacks when it is low, dividends when it is high36,8%
June 2026

OMXI15

Next 6 months

Where do you expect the OMXI15 to be in 6 months?

Up 10%+12,7%
Up 1–10%46,5%
Flat (±1%)31,0%
Down 1–10%9,9%
Down 10%+0,0%
Bull-bear spread +49,3 pp

Next 12 months

Where do you expect the OMXI15 to be in 12 months?

Up 10%+39,4%
Up 1–10%45,1%
Flat (±1%)11,3%
Down 1–10%2,8%
Down 10%+1,4%
Bull-bear spread +80,3 pp

Policy rate

Next 6 months

Where do you expect the CBI policy rate to be in 6 months?

Higher35,2%
Unchanged46,5%
Lower18,3%
Net expecting cuts -16,9 pp

Next 12 months

Where do you expect the CBI policy rate to be in 12 months?

Higher14,1%
Unchanged15,5%
Lower70,4%
Net expecting cuts +56,3 pp

Inflation

Next 6 months

In 6 months, 12-month CPI inflation will be

Higher15,5%
Unchanged32,4%
Lower52,1%
Net expecting lower inflation +36,6 pp

Next 12 months

In 12 months, 12-month CPI inflation will be

Higher4,2%
Unchanged16,9%
Lower78,9%
Net expecting lower inflation +74,6 pp

Also asked in June 2026

Where do you expect ISK vs EUR to be in 12 months?

ISK to strengthen 5% or more1,4%
ISK to strengthen 1–5%8,5%
ISK roughly flat (±1%)40,8%
ISK to weaken 1–5%45,1%
ISK to weaken 5% or more4,2%
Net expecting a stronger króna -39,4 pp

Icelandic companies are generally

Over-levered8,5%
Adequately levered42,3%
Under-levered49,3%

Which company in AKKUR's coverage offers the best investment opportunity over the next 12 months?

ARION19,7%
ISB18,3%
HEIMAR12,7%
HAGA11,3%
NOVA9,9%
KVIKA7,0%
EIK7,0%
ICEAIR5,6%
FESTI4,2%
REITIR4,2%
July 2026

OMXI15

Next 6 months

Where do you expect the OMXI15 to be 6 months from today?

Up 10%+14,5%
Up 1–10%43,6%
Flat (±1%)30,9%
Down 1–10%10,9%
Down 10%+0,0%
Bull-bear spread +47,3 pp

Next 12 months

Where do you expect the OMXI15 to be 12 months from today?

Up 10%+38,2%
Up 1–10%45,5%
Flat (±1%)7,3%
Down 1–10%9,1%
Down 10%+0,0%
Bull-bear spread +74,5 pp

Policy rate

Next 6 months

Which direction do you expect the CBI policy rate to move over the next 6 months?

Higher45,5%
Unchanged47,3%
Lower7,3%
Net expecting cuts -38,2 pp

Next 12 months

Which direction do you expect the CBI policy rate to move over the next 12 months?

Higher21,8%
Unchanged25,5%
Lower52,7%
Net expecting cuts +30,9 pp

Inflation

Next 6 months

Which direction do you expect inflation to move over the next 6 months?

Higher27,3%
Unchanged43,6%
Lower29,1%
Net expecting lower inflation +1,8 pp

Next 12 months

Which direction do you expect inflation to move over the next 12 months?

Higher7,3%
Unchanged25,5%
Lower67,3%
Net expecting lower inflation +60,0 pp

Also asked in July 2026

What is your estimate of the equity market risk premium (MRP) for Iceland?

3,0%12,7%
3,5%9,1%
4,0%16,4%
4,5%1,8%
5,0%14,5%
5,5%14,5%
6,0%20,0%
6,5%5,5%
7,0%3,6%
7,5%1,8%
Mean 4,91% · median 5,0%

How will Icelandic tourist arrivals develop in 2026 vs 2025?

Up 10%+1,8%
Up 1–10%32,7%
Flat (±1%)34,5%
Down 1–10%29,1%
Down 10%+1,8%
Net expecting growth +3,6 pp

Which AKKUR-covered name are you least willing to own over the next 12 months?

ICEAIR56,4%
NOVA18,2%
None9,1%
ARION5,5%
KVIKA3,6%
FESTI3,6%
REITIR1,8%
HEIMAR1,8%
EIK0,0%
ISB0,0%
HAGA0,0%
August 2026 · 23 to 25 August 2026

OMXI15

Next 6 months

Where do you expect the OMXI15 to be 6 months from today?

Up 10%+13,5%
Up 1–10%46,2%
Flat (±1%)34,6%
Down 1–10%5,8%
Down 10%+0,0%
Bull-bear spread +53,8 pp

Next 12 months

Where do you expect the OMXI15 to be 12 months from today?

Up 10%+46,2%
Up 1–10%46,2%
Flat (±1%)1,9%
Down 1–10%5,8%
Down 10%+0,0%
Bull-bear spread +86,5 pp

Policy rate

Next 6 months

Which direction do you expect the CBI policy rate to move over the next 6 months?

Higher7,7%
Unchanged61,5%
Lower30,8%
Net expecting cuts +23,1 pp

Next 12 months

Which direction do you expect the CBI policy rate to move over the next 12 months?

Higher3,8%
Unchanged7,7%
Lower88,5%
Net expecting cuts +84,6 pp

Inflation

Next 6 months

Which direction do you expect inflation to move over the next 6 months?

Higher9,6%
Unchanged51,9%
Lower38,5%
Net expecting lower inflation +28,8 pp

Next 12 months

Which direction do you expect inflation to move over the next 12 months?

Higher3,8%
Unchanged5,8%
Lower90,4%
Net expecting lower inflation +86,5 pp

Also asked in August 2026

How do you expect the EU accession referendum on 29 August to turn out?

Yes wins clearly (55%+)1,9%
Yes wins narrowly (50–55%)36,5%
No wins narrowly (50–55%)46,2%
No wins clearly (55%+)15,4%

Your single best long idea among AKKUR-covered names today is:

ARION25,0%
None15,4%
ICEAIR11,5%
ISB11,5%
EIK7,7%
FESTI7,7%
KVIKA7,7%
HAGA5,8%
HEIMAR3,8%
REITIR3,8%
NOVA0,0%
SKAGI0,0%

Is the Icelandic equity market, in aggregate, fairly valued today?

Significantly undervalued (20%+)26,9%
Undervalued (5–20%)55,8%
Fairly valued (±5%)17,3%
Overvalued (5–20%)0,0%
Significantly overvalued (20%+)0,0%
Net undervalued +82,7 pp

The survey is open to AKKUR's subscribers and is not a representative sample of investors. Results are respondents' views, aggregated; no individual response is published. Where a question names companies under AKKUR's coverage, the answers are a poll of respondents and are not AKKUR's rating, target price or recommendation for any share; those are on the Estimates page with the disclosures that belong to them.

Advertising
Your sponsor hereThis space is available. Advertising on this website is sold directly by AKKUR and is labelled as such.
Enquire →
Subscription form by beehiiv

AKKUR research is first sent to paying subscribers and selected research is made public afterwards, at AKKUR's discretion. Public versions carry the date and time of the original first dissemination.

By subscribing you consent to receive research and related communications from AKKUR by email. You can unsubscribe at any time using the link in every email. See the privacy notice for how AKKUR handles your data.

AKKURIndependent equity research on Icelandic listed companies

AKKUR — Greining og ráðgjöf ehf. · Reg. no. 480107-0710 · Reykjavík, Iceland · akkur.net

AKKUR produces investment recommendations within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 (MAR), as implemented in Iceland by Act No. 60/2021, and applies the presentation and disclosure requirements of Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958. AKKUR is not authorised by the Financial Supervisory Authority of the Central Bank of Iceland and does not provide investment advice, portfolio management or any other service requiring authorisation.

Any page showing a target price alongside a market price is an investment recommendation. Ratings and target prices reflect AKKUR's most recently published valuation for each company and change only when a new valuation or rating action is published; market prices update continuously. Prices are sourced from TradingView, are delayed by at least 15 minutes, and are not a basis for execution.

Research is for information only. It is not a personal recommendation and takes no account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any recipient.

© 2026 Akkur – Greining og ráðgjöf ehf. Reproduction or redistribution of AKKUR material, in whole or in substantial part, requires AKKUR's written consent. Quotation with attribution, within the limits of the Icelandic Copyright Act, does not.